Hotel growth to continue

  • Published:14 Jan 2013
  • Author:Property Australia Ezine
  • Source:Property Australia Ezine

Dransfield forecasts national revPAR growth of 5.2 percent to 2014, supply growth of 2.6 percent, and demand increase by 3.2 percent.

The Dransfield Hotel Futures 2012 report forecasts revPAR growth nationally of 5.2 percent in the medium term, a slight decrease on the 5.4 percent rate recorded for 2011.

According to the report, the downgraded forecast will be offset by a strong performance in 2013/14, bringing three-year growth to 5.2 percent.

Dransfield forecasts supply growth nationally of 2.6 percent to 2014. This represents a slight decline from the 2.7 percent supply growth recorded to 2011.

Demand is expected to increase from 3 percent recorded in 2011 – up by 3.2 percent over the period to 2014.

No. rooms Year-on-year Supply change % y-o-y Demand change % ARR revPAR Occupancy rate
2011 87,079 1.2 1.1 $162.86 $124.40 76.4%
2012 87,203 0.1 0.5 $168.49 $129.18 76.7%
2013 89,207 2.3 3.3 $177.18 $137.19 77.4%
2014 92,269 3.4 4.0 $185.95 $144.77 77.9%

Source: Dransfield

According to Dransfield, revPAR growth over the next three years will be driven by a “general market improvement” in Canberra and Hobart. It says growth will be rate driven in Brisbane, Cairns & Port Douglas, Darwin, Melbourne and Sydney.

Demand driven supply will see 1.5 percent growth in Adelaide. Demand will drive 6.4 percent increase on the Gold Coast. And rates supported by increased supply will drive 6.2 percent growth in the Perth market.

City 3 year revPAR outlook
Adelaide 1.5 percent
Brisbane 5.2 percent
Cairns and Port Douglas 6.4 percent
Canberra 3.0 percent
Darwin 7.1 percent
Gold Coast 6.4 percent
Hobart 2.7 percent
Melbourne 4.9 percent
Perth 6.2 percent
Sydney 5.8 percent
Australia 5.2 percent

Source: Dransfield

According to Dransfield’s long-term forecast to 2020, the Australian hotel market remains in a position to deliver growth above CPI.

It also says development activity will increase over the next four years, following 11 years of less than 3 percent growth annually.

For more on Hotel Futures go to www.dransfield.com.au

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